by Stacy Feldman -
Aug 21st, 2008 
CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Jeff Rubin recently analyzed the explosion in shipping costs in the steel sector from triple-digit oil prices and came away with some thoughts (pdf) about which nation will prosper the most:
Soaring transport costs, first on importing iron to China and then exporting finished steel overseas, have already more than eroded the wage advantage and suddenly rendered Chinese-made steel uncompetitive in the US market.
In other words: Chinese steel manufacturing production is coming to America, along with the sector’s long-lost wages. That's promising news for the US Steelworkers of America, says Rubin, and a telling sign of things to come. The numbers:
China’s steel exports to the US are now falling by more than 20% on a year-over year basis—the worst performance in almost a decade. While many might attribute this decline to the slowdown in the US economy, it is noteworthy that US domestic steel production has risen by almost 10% during the same period.
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