by David Sassoon -
Nov 13th, 2008
When scientists or economists or activists show graphs of future greenhouse gas emissions, they label the line that rises most steeply and most quickly as "BAU" or "business-as-usual." It is the certain path to temperature rises of 5 degrees or more and to climate catastrophe. There is no argument that to halt the progress of global warming, what is required is an end to business-as-usual.
If you are concerned about global warming, "business -as-usual" is a four-letter phrase. It's abbreviated as "BAU" and that's a four-letter acronym. No matter the form it takes, it's a dirty word that succinctly and precisely names the enemy.
So what is worth talking about -- since nobody else appears to be -- is that the current global economic crisis has put a temporary halt to business-as-usual. The two great carbon-spewing economies of the globe -- the US and China -- are now spewing a lot less greenhouse gas. Together, they account for half of the world's emissions.
It's probably safe to wager that the economic downturn will be doing more to reduce global GHG emissions than all the real effort and well-intentioned rhetoric of the last two decades. It would be useful and illuminating if someone with the requisite expertise would redraw the trajectory of BAU on a graph, taking into account the financial meltdown, so we can see by just how much.
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